Jemaine should get the Emmy, but Jim probably will HBO/CBS Yep, it's that time of year again -- time to hand out those sharp-looking statuettes and time to watch "Mad Men" and "30 Rock" win the majority of 'em. But there's a big difference between who'll take home the gold and who should.
Drama Series
Nominees: "Big Love," "Breaking Bad," "Damages," "Dexter," "House," "Lost," "Mad Men"
Who Will Win: "Mad Men"
Who Should Win: "Big Love"
Why: After delivering its best season and best performances to date, HBO's "Big Love" more than deserves to be recognized by the Academy. Unfortunately, voters are more concerned with supporting the buzziest show on the small screen. As a result, "Mad Men" will emerge victorious ... again. Boring!
Comedy Series
Nominees: "30 Rock," "Entourage," "Family Guy," "Flight of the Conchords," "How I Met Your Mother," "The Office," "Weeds"
Who Will Win: "30 Rock"
Who Should Win: "30 Rock"
Why: Despite the fact that loving "30 Rock" is no longer considered cool, the wacky, wonderful, and ratings-starved laugher deserves to take home its third consecutive trophy ... and will. Thanks to the incredibly talented writing team that gave us Jackie Jormp-Jomp, Lizzing, and everything that comes out of Tracy Jordan's foul mouth, the show won't face a strong challenger and will continue to dominate its category.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees: Simon Baker ("The Mentalist"), Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House")
Who Will Win: Jon Hamm
Who Should Win: Gabriel Byrne
Why: Simon Baker is the new kid on the block; voters can reward him in coming years. Gabriel Byrne -- who was snubbed last year and will be snubbed again this year -- stars on a show that nearly nobody watches. Bryan Cranston was honored in '08 for his outstanding performance on "Breaking Bad" (and for seven years of hard labor on "Malcolm in the Middle"). Michael C. Hall's character is too edgy, and Hugh Laurie's "House" is no longer hot. Therefore, the studly Jon Hamm has it in the bag.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
Who Will Win: Kyra Sedgwick
Who Should Win: Glenn Close
Why: Kyra is fantastic as Brenda Leigh Johnson, the sassy Southern belle/police detective on "The Closer," and I'd be more than happy to see her win her first Emmy. But let's be honest: Glenn Close delivers the best performance on TV each and every week as the deliciously diabolical Patty Hewes. She's in a league of her own and should add to her Emmy haul.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Jemaine Clement ("Flight of the Conchords"), Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")
Who Will Win: Jim Parsons
Who Should Win: Jemaine Clement
Why: Finally, the Emmys are going to champion a breakout star! But it won't be Jemaine Clement, the guitar-playing Kiwi, who also happens to be the funniest man on TV. Instead, they'll honor "The Big Bang Theory's" Jim Parsons. And, as much as I want to hate on him for stealing Jemaine's trophy, I can't. He's awesome. Congrats in advance.
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Christina Applegate ("Samantha Who?"), Toni Collette ("The United States of Tara"), Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine"), Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds"), Sarah Silverman ("The Sarah Silverman Program")
Who Will Win: Tina Fey
Who Should Win: Sarah Silverman
Why: Collette could give Fey a run for her money because Academy voters love it when a movie star jumps to the small screen, but the bespectacled self-proclaimed nerd will likely triumph over the "United Stars of Tara" star and the equally deserving Parker. Silverman should have a shot but doesn't; her nomination was a victory in and of itself.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees: Christian Clemenson ("Boston Legal"), Michael Emerson ("Lost"), William Hurt ("Damages"), Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad"), William Shatner ("Boston Legal"), John Slattery ("Mad Men")
Who Will Win: John Slattery
Who Should Win: Aaron Paul
Why: "Mad Men" is going to overshadow all other contenders on Emmy night, so don't be amazed to see all of its stars walking around with individual statuettes come the end of the evening. In addition, John Slattery was the star of the show's second season. That, combined with the fact that nobody wants to see Shatner win another award and a few unrecognizable names in the mix, will allow the silver fox to walk away with the win ... unless William Hurt sneaks out a surprise.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees: Rose Byrne ("Damages"), Hope Davis ("In Treatment"), Cherry Jones ("24"), Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment"), Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy")
Who Will Win: Chandra Wilson
Who Should Win: Dianne Wiest
Why: Part of me wants to hand Chandra an award for having to deal with all the shenanigans (Isaiah-gate) and divas (Kat Heigl) on her show. I think voters will agree with me and hand her one, but if you saw Dianne Wiest's otherworldly performance on "In Treatment," you'd change your mind. Then again, most people don't have HBO, don't watch "In Treatment," and don't think Diane needs another Emmy to go with her two Oscars.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men"), Kevin Dillon ("Entourage"), Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother"), Jack McBrayer ("30 Rock"), Tracy Morgan ("30 Rock"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office")
Who Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris
Who Should Win: Tracy Morgan
Why: I'm picking Tracy Morgan because he makes me laugh my butt off every Thursday night. I'm not saying that Neil Patrick Harris isn't more than deserving of an Emmy, especially after being robbed by "Entourage's" Jeremy Piven in years past. I'm just saying that he's not nearly as hilarious. That's all. But, to have the host of the show win an Emmy ... that would be pretty cool, and it'll definitely happen.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth ("Pushing Daisies"), Jane Krakowski ("30 Rock"), Elizabeth Perkins ("Weeds"), Amy Poehler ("Saturday Night Live"), Kristen Wiig ("Saturday Night Live"), Vanessa Williams ("Ugly Betty")
Who Will Win: Elizabeth Perkins
Who Should Win: Kristen Wiig
Why: If Kristen Wiig doesn't win, I might cry. Have you seen her on "SNL"? Her Suze Orman impersonation alone should nab her a mantle full of trophies. Unfortunately, I think Wiig and Poehler will split the vote, Williams will be overlooked (again), Chenoweth will be forgotten, and Krakowski will be too hard for some announcers to pronounce. With Weeds always walking home empty-handed, this is the chance for voters to honor the show. Perkins for the win.
Reality-Competition Program
Nominees: "The Amazing Race," "American Idol," "Dancing With the Stars," "Project Runway," "Top Chef"
Who Will Win: "The Amazing Race"
Who Should Win: "Top Chef"
Why: My heart says "Chef," but my head says "Race" ... and after six consecutive wins, it would be silly to begin betting against an Academy fave.
Host for a Reality Show or Competition
Nominees: Tom Bergeron ("Dancing With the Stars"), Phil Keoghan ("The Amazing Race"), Heidi Klum ("Project Runway"), Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio ("Top Chef"), Jeff Probst ("Survivor"), Ryan Seacrest ("American Idol")
Who Will Win: Phil Keoghan
Who Should Win: Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio
Why: Jeff took home the top prize last year, and Heidi, Tom, and Ryan don't have a shot. Voters will probably want to give Phil an Emmy for his work on their beloved baby, "The Amazing Race," this go-round, but Padma and Tom will provide some tasty competition.
Am I way off base? Totally on target? Let me know your thoughts, and don't forget to tune in to the 61st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, airing live Sunday, September 20 on CBS.
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